From the Archives...
[The Manual, page 204, 1983]
An extract from the Manual that was originally published by Taylor Management
Centers in Boulder, Colorado.
Purpose: To order over time your projections of events
in the future.
To create a map and model to guide you in your planning and decision
Decide on a general-purpose or specific field scenario.
If your scenario is oriented to a specific discipline, watch for developments
in other fields that impact your field. Look at relationships and
networks of events.
Determine the number of years you will forecast for
in the scenario. Go beyond your particular need, i.e., if you are
looking at a field around a five year goal, build the scenario for
eight or ten years.
Start the process with the right place to work, such
as a Management Center with walls you can write on. Otherwise, use
long sheets of butcher paper tacked on the wall. It helps to have
an assortment of colored markers to write with. When your tools are
in order, divide your work surface into equal portions--years, months,
weeks, days--according to the time period you want to forecast.
Use each forecast as a springboard for adding more events
to the scenario, continuing to work both from the present to the future
and from the future to the present.
Check each forecast for lag time. What is the time lag
between a new idea and its market place implementation in your fields
Collect information and document your work.
Keep records of all your scenarios.
Always strive for a sense of synergy in your scenarios.
The principle of synergy states that the behavior of a whole system
is unpredictable from the behavior of its parts. This premise leads
to a corollary; once you understand a system you can predict the behavior
of unknown parts. If you have a conceptual, cybernetic understanding
of future change, you can make predictions the "experts"
will miss. You become better able to direct your personal destiny
and the destination of your company.
Options For the Future, Thomas E. Jones, Praeger
Profiles of the Future, Arthur C. Clarke, Harper & Row, 1958
The Third Wave, Alvin Toffler, Morrow, 1980
copyright © 1997, MG Taylor Corporation.
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